Score one for Laloo a.k.a Paswan closer to irrelevance
Laloo Prasad, the Union Railiway Minister, pulled out all the stops and got the UPA Govt. to dissolve the Bihar Assembly. The offficial reason given for the decision is an urgent need to prevent horse trading by the NDA.
NDTV is however reporting the UPA sources admit in private that Laloo had gotten some indication that the NDA was ready to stake claim to form the government with the help of the breakaway LJP MLAs and independents. On Sunday evening, after a ceremony to release a book about the achievements of the UPA government during its first year (I wonder if Goa, Jharkand, Shibu Soren, Laloo Prasad Yadav, Saptarishi were mentioned in the booklet), Laloo reportedly told Manmohan Singh it was now or never, and that if the answer was never, "complications" might arise in the government.
A bomb blast at two Delhi cinemas necessitated a late night cabinet meeting, but the issue of the Bihar Assembly dissolution was also discussed, according to NDTV. Soon the Govt. recommended that the Assembly be dissolved. The NDA (BJP and JD-U in particular) is going nuts at this decision and the usual threats of Bandh and going to courts have been made.
Now to the analysis: the biggest loser in all this has to be Ram Vilas Paswan and the LJP, closely followed by the NDA. The Congress will now have to go with the Laloo and the RJP to save its government. Laloo is promising to give it more seats during the elections and it remains to be seen. Ram Vilas Paswan is however caught between the devil and the deep sea. He cannot possibly go with the RJP having opposed him tooth and nail so far and having made it his election platform during the elections a few months back. But he cannot join the NDA for the assembly elections alone because the UPA will throw him out of the government. It is quite a big fall for him from a few months back, when he looked like a kingmaker, with a real possibility of controlling Bihar and also getting a plum ministry in the Union Govt. in return for keeping the NDA out of power in Bihar. There is a real possibility (small but significant) that he could lose his Cabinet position in the run up to the Bihar elections if he chooses the wrong side, and also end up not ruling Bihar as well.
Laloo cashed in on his 25 MPs in the Lok Sabha and made the spineless Congress accede to his demand of dissolving the Assembly. The RJP will in all likelihood head a coalition consisting of itself, the Congress and the Left parties, and maybe even the LJP.
This spells big trouble for the NDA though. The electoral arithmetic does not favor them and they might face a rout in the new round of elections. BJP has to be very worried. Nitish Kumar has resisted all efforts so far fromPaswan to leave the BJP. However this is the crunch time. An alliance with the LJP might get him the one seat he has coveted for long - the CM of Bihar.
They need a miracle to get out of this logjam. If they take this to the courts and the courts hear the case (highly unlikely in my opinion, what with the President having already acepted the Cabinet's decision to dissolve the assembly), they can take the moral high ground in this whole issue. It will be another event that follows in the pattern of Goa and Jharkhand, where the UPA Govt. has blundered and were admonished by the courts for their hasty and ill-conceived actions.
The NDA needs to start praying to RAM right now. Even he might not be able to get them out of this one. Laloo seems to have outwitted and outlasted them and it looks like Rabri will be back for a 2nd innings. The Bihar people get only a brief reprieve from Laloo. They might just be the biggest loser in all of this. However they have a chance to control their destiny through the ballot box. Will they be allowed to do so and, more importantly, will they vote for a change?.
"Patil said Bihar Governor Buta Singh, in a report to the government, had said that unconstitutional and illegal steps were being taken by political parties to win over legislators".
NDTV is however reporting the UPA sources admit in private that Laloo had gotten some indication that the NDA was ready to stake claim to form the government with the help of the breakaway LJP MLAs and independents. On Sunday evening, after a ceremony to release a book about the achievements of the UPA government during its first year (I wonder if Goa, Jharkand, Shibu Soren, Laloo Prasad Yadav, Saptarishi were mentioned in the booklet), Laloo reportedly told Manmohan Singh it was now or never, and that if the answer was never, "complications" might arise in the government.
A bomb blast at two Delhi cinemas necessitated a late night cabinet meeting, but the issue of the Bihar Assembly dissolution was also discussed, according to NDTV. Soon the Govt. recommended that the Assembly be dissolved. The NDA (BJP and JD-U in particular) is going nuts at this decision and the usual threats of Bandh and going to courts have been made.
Now to the analysis: the biggest loser in all this has to be Ram Vilas Paswan and the LJP, closely followed by the NDA. The Congress will now have to go with the Laloo and the RJP to save its government. Laloo is promising to give it more seats during the elections and it remains to be seen. Ram Vilas Paswan is however caught between the devil and the deep sea. He cannot possibly go with the RJP having opposed him tooth and nail so far and having made it his election platform during the elections a few months back. But he cannot join the NDA for the assembly elections alone because the UPA will throw him out of the government. It is quite a big fall for him from a few months back, when he looked like a kingmaker, with a real possibility of controlling Bihar and also getting a plum ministry in the Union Govt. in return for keeping the NDA out of power in Bihar. There is a real possibility (small but significant) that he could lose his Cabinet position in the run up to the Bihar elections if he chooses the wrong side, and also end up not ruling Bihar as well.
Laloo cashed in on his 25 MPs in the Lok Sabha and made the spineless Congress accede to his demand of dissolving the Assembly. The RJP will in all likelihood head a coalition consisting of itself, the Congress and the Left parties, and maybe even the LJP.
This spells big trouble for the NDA though. The electoral arithmetic does not favor them and they might face a rout in the new round of elections. BJP has to be very worried. Nitish Kumar has resisted all efforts so far fromPaswan to leave the BJP. However this is the crunch time. An alliance with the LJP might get him the one seat he has coveted for long - the CM of Bihar.
They need a miracle to get out of this logjam. If they take this to the courts and the courts hear the case (highly unlikely in my opinion, what with the President having already acepted the Cabinet's decision to dissolve the assembly), they can take the moral high ground in this whole issue. It will be another event that follows in the pattern of Goa and Jharkhand, where the UPA Govt. has blundered and were admonished by the courts for their hasty and ill-conceived actions.
The NDA needs to start praying to RAM right now. Even he might not be able to get them out of this one. Laloo seems to have outwitted and outlasted them and it looks like Rabri will be back for a 2nd innings. The Bihar people get only a brief reprieve from Laloo. They might just be the biggest loser in all of this. However they have a chance to control their destiny through the ballot box. Will they be allowed to do so and, more importantly, will they vote for a change?.
posted by Rajagopal at 8:55 AM
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